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Tracking Development Statistics (5-7-2012)

2012 Teton County Quickfacts

READ THE FULL REPORT HERE (pdf download)

Introduction

This year, we have designed our Quickfacts to give a more holistic picture of the current state of development in our community. It is critical that our community have access to the best information possible when making decisions about future growth scenarios in the Teton Valley 2020 planning process. This data is current as of April 30, 2012.

Executive Summary

Sixty-seven percent of all the land in Teton County is privately owned. Approximately 31% of this private land has been subdivided, while 69% could be subdivided in the future. With the current base zoning in the rural county, there are 144,000 acres that could be further divided, creating 26,000 more lots. There are also 501 acres of undeveloped land in the rural county that is zoned for commercial or manufacturing uses. Within the three cities of Victor, Driggs, and Tetonia there are an additional 1,817 acres of undeveloped land.

Looking at subdivided land, 77% (7,030) of all the platted lots in the rural county are vacant, meaning a home or other structure has yet to be built on the lot. There are also an additional 1,674 vacant lots in Victor, Driggs, and Tetonia, bringing the county-wide total up to 8,702. At 2.4 residents per household, these vacant lots can accommodate housing for 20,884 people.

However, these vacant lots are not being absorbed at a rapid pace. In the rural county, the demand for new homes peaked in 2006, with 338 building permits issued. Since that peak, building permits have declined by 98%. Seven building permits were issued last year. The cities show even less building activity. Since 2009, a total of three building permits were issued for new homes in Victor and Driggs. Over the past four years, home construction in the rural county has outpaced the cities by 1,600%. Today, 2 out of every 3 homes is located in the rural county, outside of the cities.

Because the volume of building permits has varied considerably over the past eight years, it is difficult to predict the future rate of home absorption. If homes are constructed at the 2004-2011 average rate of 134 building permits per year, there is currently a 57-year building supply. No realistic absorption rate can be calculated for the vacant lots in the cities. As for home occupancy, 37% of the housing units in the rural county are vacant. In the three cities, 26% of the housing units are vacant. The average vacancy rate for Idaho is 12.6%.

As for future growth, if Teton County’s population increases at the average, but still very aggressive growth rate for Idaho (21.1% population increase from 2000-2010) the population in 2030 will be 14,915 residents. The housing demand for this increase in population is estimated at 1,977 units. Because there are currently 1,827 vacant housing units in the county, the estimated remaining 20-year demand for future housing is 150 additional housing units. Therefore, the existing inventory of 8,702 vacant lots is 5,800% more than the future demand.

What does this all mean? The vacant lot supply in Teton County is 58 times larger than the projected demand. However, with the current zoning in Teton County, an additional 26,000 more lots can still be created. If current building trends persist, for every 1 house that is built in Victor or Driggs, 16 homes will be built in the rural county.

READ THE FULL REPORT and learn more about the current state of development in Teton County, Idaho HERE (pdf download 1MB)

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